Canada’s housing market slipped in September as buyer demand weakened across most major regions, according to an analysis by RBC assistant chief economist Robert Hogue. Trade friction with the United States and higher long-term rates were cited as key pressures.
Sales fell in Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City. The broad decline highlighted the national slowdown.
Price drops continued in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. Toronto’s brief summer gain also faded, with the benchmark price slipping half a percent.
Robert Hogue expects that improving affordability and a resilient economy could eventually lure more buyers back, but he warned that “the road ahead is likely to be bumpy and uneven across markets.”
Toronto’s stalled rebound
The capital’s five-month recovery unraveled in September. Resale activity fell 5.2 per cent from August, while the benchmark price slipped similarly.
Active listings were down 9.3 per cent year-over-year, reflecting fewer sellers entering the market. Robert Hogue wrote that inventory must stay on a declining trend for home values to eventually stabilize. He added that the current pace of listings could keep price pressure modest.
Condos remain a weak spot, comprising nearly one-third of all listings. Condo prices dropped 6.7 per cent year-over-year, compared with a 4.7 per cent decline for single-detached homes.
Montreal sees rising supply
In the province’s largest city, inventory rose 20 per cent from a year earlier, while new listings climbed 7.2 per cent in September. More than 24,000 new homes were completed over the past 12 months, creating “a certain displacement effect in the market,” the economist said.
The biggest inventory gains appeared on the North and South Shores, where active listings jumped 30 per cent and 32 per cent respectively. Median condo prices were flat year-over-year, and single-family values rose just 0.4 per cent.
Vancouver slump and Calgary steadiness
In Vancouver, resales fell nearly 8 per cent from August on a seasonally adjusted basis, and the composite MLS Home Price Index was down 5.5 per cent year-over-year. “Further depreciation will likely be necessary to draw in more buyers,” the economist wrote, noting that active listings remain near a decade high.
Calgary fared better, with transactions, new and active listings, and the MLS index all holding steady after seasonal adjustment. Single-detached resales rose 4.4 per cent year-over-year, though prices slipped 1 per cent. Condo resales dropped 14.3 per cent, and condo prices fell 8.3 per cent.
Confidence challenges and price outlook
RBC projects that home prices will stay under pressure for the remainder of the calendar year. The forecast extends the downward pressure scenario into 2027 if current market conditions persist. The bank’s outlook reflects the combination of high inventory levels and lingering affordability challenges. RBC’s model indicates that any significant price rebound is unlikely before inventory trends reverse. The institution cautions that regional variations may moderate but not eliminate the overall downward bias.
